Archive for the 'future' Category

“Playing Devil’s Advocate to Win” from xkcd

Sunday, February 18th, 2007

xkcd global warming cartoon

Not promoting, just found this interesting.

-- MattShanley

love or power, and the land

Saturday, February 17th, 2007

a quote from Barry Lopez, author of one of my favorite books about the Arctic, arctic Dreams:

It is my belief that a human imagination is shaped by the architecture it encounters at an early age. The visual landscape, of course, or the depth, elevation, and hues of a cityscape play a part here, as does the way sunlight everywhere etches lines to accentuate forms. But the way we imagine is also affected by streams of scent flowing faint or sharp in the larger ocean of air; by what the North American composer John Luther Adams calls the sonic landscape; and, say, by an awareness of how temperature and humidity rise and fall in a place over a year.Over time I have come to think of these three qualities–paying intimate attention; a storied relationship to a place rather than a solely sensory awareness of it; and living in some sort of ethical unity with a place–as a fundamental human defense against loneliness. If you’re intimate with a place, a place with whose history you’re familiar, and you establish an ethical conversation with it, the implication that follows is this: the place knows you’re there. It feels you. You will not be forgotten, cut off, abandoned.

-- JaneMarsching

Thoughts on the Economics of Climate Change in Alaska

Friday, February 2nd, 2007

Hi,

I am an environmental and natural resource economist who studies the effects of projected climate change on our state’s built environment. The built environment in my current project includes bridges, roads, water/sewer, and many different types of buildings.

Prior to arriving in Alaska, I was an economist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, CO USA) where I built sophisticated models to study the effects of weather variability on the U.S. economy.

As a researcher who works in the arctic where these changes seem to be the most pronounced, I am happy to write in to climate commons to report on my observations.

-- PeterLarsen

Terreform: New paradigm for the future?

Monday, January 22nd, 2007
Terreform <span class='category'>future</span> City 2100Jane has asked us to think about the future…
How are you, in your daily projects/thinking/work, developing a new paradigm for the future? Clearly our old patterns/habits/roles are not helping us move forward anymore. How can we make a better paradigm that everyone knows is just common sense? What does that take?
We, as the nonprofit Terreform, expect dramatic transformations, although we can’t predict exactly what they will be: visionaries are optimists, not magicians. We work on cities, esp New York. Our projects therefore seek to reinforce what is best about the city – in both its forms and its life –by speculating about the consequences of a radically new level of sustainability. We base our projects on one clarifying hypothesis: in the future cities will become self-sufficient in its vital necessities, including energy, food, water, air supply, employment, housing, manufacture, movement systems, waste processing, and cultural life.
This condition of self-reliance is both improbable and indispensable. Improbable, because the planet is shrinking, because the city must be the nexus of flows of people, resources, and information. Indispensable, however, because of the planetary crisis reflected in the misdistribution of finite resources, so well reflected in our “ecological footprint” – the actual territory needed to supply our needs. To state it succinctly: If the everyone in the world today consumed at the level we do, two additional planets would be required to support them.
For New York we propose transformation via a radical strategy: the reversal of figure and ground, of public and private property. We begin with citywide “greenfill,” the immediate transfer of half the aggregate of street space from the vehicular to the pedestrian and public realm. Later, the streets become building sites and, as new, highly autonomous, buildings grow in intersections and wind their way down streets and avenues and through vacant lots, the old, deteriorated, fabric will fade away to be replaced both by an abundance of productive green space and by a new labyrinth of irregular blocks, a paradise for people on foot. Fast movement will be accomplished underground in a superbly modernized subway and along the rivers and new cross-island channels. The city streets – extended in their length but reduced in their area – will support a marvelous technology we know to be just over the horizon, some fabulous and slow conveyance summoned with a whistle or collapsed into a pocket.
Please see Terreform.org for more….

-- Mitchell Joachim

Future Sea Levels

Tuesday, January 9th, 2007

EPA <span class='category'>map</span> of Southeast

We had a discussion at work yesterday about what it would mean if sea levels rise, possibly up to 20 feet, in our children’s lifetime if not ours. What would Boston look like, or the southern Atlantic and Gulf coasts? One person insinuated that a lot of rich people in our area would be in trouble - think Cape Cod, Back Bay - to which my boss responded, “No, those people have cars. They’re fine.” So what will this do to other parts of the world where people are often way more crowded along the coasts than we are?

-- MattShanley

Thoughts From An Aleut of the Bering Sea 5

Friday, January 5th, 2007

I am sure that environmentalists and environmentally conscious individuals ponder what has been accomplished since the beginning of the movement in the U.S. There have been many notable successes, and yet things seem to be getting worse. And, of course, much traction was lost during this U.S. presidency as laws were rolled back or changed. It is time to do some serious introspection and cold assessment of the strategies that have been used, otherwise, I believe, we will continue to experience pendulum swings of public support for environmental causes.

-- Larry Merculieff

The electranet

Thursday, December 21st, 2006

Al Gore’s essay in Newsweek on the Electranet:

From the Dec. 18th Newsweek

My Turn: [The Energy Electranet]

The climate crisis will force a historic shift to a new global power network of small alternative sources. This network will then feed a smart electric grid. Welcome to the future.

By Al Gore
Newsweek

Dec. 18, 2006 issue - Over the past 200 years, the industrial revolution has created vast wealth and huge improvements in the human condition—in a few dozen highly industrialized countries. The engine of that revolution was fueled by coal and then supercharged with oil—multiplying the productivity of human labor many, many times over. Although we have reaped many benefits from this intensive use of energy, we are now faced with an urgent crisis—a crisis that is altering the very nature of the Earth’s climate.

Read the whole essay [here]

-- JockGill

The North Pole *was* here, sooner than we thought?

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

ice5.png

When I wrote my new book on global and arctic climate change, I chose to call it The north pole Was Here because scientists had posted a goofy sign on the sea ice near 90 Degrees North with that phrase on it — marking the fact that the camp was drifting 400 yards an hour. It also referred to the idea that the north pole of our history could soon going to be history, given the changes afoot in climate up north. Now both computer climate simulations and fresh measurements of sea-ice trends are both pointing to a much quicker transition to open water around the Pole in summers than earlier studies had projected — possibly by 2040.

I have a story in today’s New York Times on that new work. There are some links in the piece to animations generated by the model and more.

-- Andrew Revkin

Past global warming suggests massive temperature shift in our future

Friday, December 8th, 2006

mongabay.com
December 7, 2006

If past climate change is any indication, Earth could be in store for some significant global warming according to research published in the December 8, 2006, issue of the journal Science. The work suggests that climate change skeptics may be fighting a losing cause.

The study, led by Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale, looked at an episode of rapid climate change that occurred some 55 million years ago. Known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the period was marked by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases that heated Earth by roughly 9° F (5° C), in less than 10,000 years. The climate warming caused widespread changes including mass extinction in the world’s oceans due to acidification and shifts of plant communities due to changes in rainfall. The era helped set the stage for the “Age of Mammals,” which included the first appearance of modern primates.

-- JockGill