The North Pole *was* here, sooner than we thought?

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When I wrote my new book on global and arctic climate change, I chose to call it The north pole Was Here because scientists had posted a goofy sign on the sea ice near 90 Degrees North with that phrase on it — marking the fact that the camp was drifting 400 yards an hour. It also referred to the idea that the north pole of our history could soon going to be history, given the changes afoot in climate up north. Now both computer climate simulations and fresh measurements of sea-ice trends are both pointing to a much quicker transition to open water around the Pole in summers than earlier studies had projected — possibly by 2040.

I have a story in today’s New York Times on that new work. There are some links in the piece to animations generated by the model and more.

To get a closeup view of the sea ice in motion, in Video I shot while on the sea ice researching the book and stories for the paper, go to video.google.com or youtube.com and put “revkin” into the search box.

To hear more on my views on the climate challenge, check out the NPR show On the Media, which interviewed me following up on the Senate hearing on purported climate ‘alarmism’ last week.

-- Andrew Revkin

JockGill Says:

And see the item on CBS: Warnings On Global Warming Coverage @ [www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2006/12/12/publiceye/entry2250283.shtml]

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JaneMarsching Says:

The Video is amazing. Strange because the ice doesn’t appear to move at all, but the sound is so loud and mechanical. I saw these pictures of ice leads in the arctic recently. They really bring home the reality of the changing ice conditions.
How thick is the ice at the North Pole?

MattShanley Says:

I enjoyed the On the Media interview. I especially appreciated your description as “trajectory” of the march of science, as well as your views on the three ways we’ve told the story of climate change wrong.

I have some concern with the state of science education in this country (and perhaps more generally, I can’t really say). I had the good fortune of attending a high school which specialized in science, and which employed some incredible teachers. There are two fundamental things I think I got from this experience, that I’m not sure are being imparted across the board. The first is the understanding, ground into me at the beginning of every class, that any theory can only be disproved - therefor our Knowledge and comprehension can only approach accuracy. The set of “facts” as we currently speak of them is never the complete story. I think this resembles your trajectory idea.

The second, and probably more important thing, was a hands-on experience of how the process of science works. I had the opportunity, for instance, to move beyond the rote memorization of basic biology and attend a bio research class were we spent a year performing a genetics experiment that had never been done before. I don’t think you can fully experience the minutia, the often surprising inexactitude, the almost non-existent progress, and the all-important process that is science without getting involved with it yourself. I think only in this way can you put the “facts” and foundation in it’s proper context.

milkyways28 Says:

it looks really cool!!!

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jkfeeney Says:

What are we up against?

- Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), chairman of the Senate environment Committee, has said, “Global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”

From An Inconvenient Truth:

“Out of 925 recent articles in peer-review scientific journals about global warming, there was no disagreement. Zero.”

Gore says that although there is “100 percent agreement” among scientists, a database search of newspaper and magazine articles shows that 57 percent question the fact of global warming, while 43 percent support it. These figures are the result, he says, of a disinformation campaign started in the 1990s by the energy industries to “reposition global warming as a debate.” It is the same strategy used for years by the defenders of tobacco. My father was a Luckys smoker who died of lung cancer in 1960, and 20 years later it was still “debatable” that there was a link between smoking and lung cancer. Now we are talking about the death of the future, starting in the lives of those now living.

More statistics:

-The 10 warmest years in history were in the last 14 years.
- Last year South America experienced its first hurricane.
- Japan and the Pacific are setting records for typhoons.
- Hurricane Katrina passed over Florida, doubled back over the Gulf, picked up strength from unusually warm Gulf waters, and went from Category 3 to Category 5. There are changes in the Gulf Stream and the jet stream.
- Cores of polar ice show that carbon dioxide is much, much higher than ever before in a quarter of a million years. It was once thought that such things went in cycles. Gore stands in front of a graph showing the ups and downs of carbon dioxide over the centuries. Yes, there is a cyclical pattern. Then, in recent years, the graph turns up and keeps going up, higher and higher, off the chart.

When my wife and I watched An Inconvenient Truth on DVD a few weeks ago, I wished I had taken notes. I came across the above quotes from a surprising source, a review of the film by Roger Ebert. I urge you to use them as well.

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